The Water Security Agency has released their 2023 spring runoff outlook in preparation for their Spring Runoff Report for March 2023.

The report shows a large portion of southern Saskatchewan having below normal potential for snowmelt runoff. The central areas of the province have above normal snowpack and are expected to get normal or above normal amounts of runoff. One area in southwestern Saskatchewan, including Maple Creek, is set to receive well below normal amounts of runoff. This is caused by periodic warm temperatures in the area that eliminated almost all of the snowpack.

Through the summer and fall of last year, most of southern Saskatchewan experienced very dry conditions. Moose Jaw through Weyburn, Indian Head, and Regina are the exception. Those areas had wetter fall conditions and near normal snowfall. Flooding is not predicted to happen despite the expected above normal runoff response. The early snowfall in November could result in two outcomes. The first outcome would be the snow insulated the soil, preventing it from freezing. In this case, any snowmelt will sink into the soil. The second result would be that due to the melting and freezing throughout the winter, the soil is frozen. Snowmelt will not sink into the soil, and runoff will be more likely.

Across most of southern Saskatchewan, winter snowfall has ranged from normal to above normal. The exception is the southeast and southcentral edges of the province. In those areas, snowfall has, so far, been below normal. An area around Watrous has also received well below normal snowfall amounts. Meltwater from January’s higher temperatures has wetted soil surfaces and has reduced the soil’s ability to absorb late season snowmelt. During spring runoff, this factor might direct more water to Saskatchewan’s storage reservoirs.