A traditional Thanksgiving turkey dinner will cost Canadian families more this year, according to new estimates from Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, Director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University.

The following story was written by Glenda-Lee Vossler with Swift CurrentOnline.com

According to their Thanksgiving Report 2026 estimates show a family of four will spend about $35.72 on a traditional turkey meal this Thanksgiving, an increase of roughly 10 percent from a year ago.

“We’re seeing fewer bargains, fewer deals when it comes to the turkey itself,” said Charlebois. “Last year, we did get a bit of a break. Actually, turkey was very affordable. There was a lot of aggressive pricing going on, but not this year, unfortunately.”

The report looks at the changes year over year as well.

The turkey meal for four costs $32.30 in 2024 and $32.48 in 2025 in the basket provided. Our 2026 scenario of $35.72 represents an estimated increase of $3.24 (+10.0%) compared with the 2025 basket. Ham is in roughly the same price range as turkey in the central scenario. The cost of lamb and lobster depends heavily on the cut
selected, lobster size, and local promotions. 

The per-adult and per-child figures allocate the total cost across 3.2 equivalent portions: one portion per adult and 0.6 of a portion per child. They do not represent the price of an individual basket. The calculation reflects the purchases required for the typical household; purchased package sizes may leave leftovers.

Higher Protein Prices Adding Pressure

While turkey remains one of the more economical holiday meal options, Charlebois noted consumers are facing higher costs across the meat case.

“It doesn’t matter what protein you pick,” he said. “Pork is also more expensive. The ham, a lot of families will actually use ham, and lamb as well is more expensive compared to last year.”

He believes elevated beef prices have had a ripple effect throughout the meat sector.

“Beef is certainly disrupting the meat counter, and that impacts turkey prices and ham prices as well,” said Charlebois.

According to the report, some consumers have shifted away from beef because of higher prices, increasing demand for alternative proteins such as poultry and pork.

“A lot of people have actually pivoted away from beef, and that’s why poultry in general, including chicken, is more expensive,” he explained.

Vegetables Also Driving Costs Higher

The increase isn’t limited to the main course.

“The other things that we noticed that are more expensive are carrots and potatoes,” he said, “So those are certainly items that are really making things more difficult.”

The rise in carrot prices was particularly surprising.

“It’s kind of strange because harvest was very strong this year, so carrots were a bit of a surprise,” he said.

Meanwhile, several other Thanksgiving staples have remained relatively stable compared to 2025.

“Everything else, cranberries, the pumpkin pie, bread rolls, [are] slightly the same price as last year.”

According to the report, in the turkey scenario, the main course accounts for $2.10 of the estimated increase from 2025. Carrots add $0.74, while five other side dishes add approximately $0.40. The assumed price of a 10-pound bag of potatoes remains $6.99.

Deals May Still Be Available

Despite the projected increase, Charlebois stressed that shoppers may still be able to find savings in stores.

The analysis is based on advertised pricing and does not account for in-store markdowns or special promotions that may not appear in flyers.

“It doesn’t mean that you won’t be able to find good deals going to the grocery store,” he said. “It’s just right now what’s being advertised suggests that really things are a little bit more expensive compared to last year.”

Giving Thanks to Canadian Farmers

As families gather around Thanksgiving tables this weekend, Charlebois hopes Canadians take time to recognize the people behind the food supply.

“I think it’s important to recognize that this is Thanksgiving,” he said. “The whole idea is to be thankful to the farmers out there doing all the work, and of course everyone else who are part of the food industry supplying us with great food.”

He added that the holiday provides an opportunity to support domestic agriculture.

“If there is one weekend we should all focus on buying domestic, buying Canadian, this is certainly the weekend.”

While grocery costs may be higher than last year, turkey remains one of the most affordable ways for families to celebrate Thanksgiving together while supporting Canadian farmers and food producers.