The combination of excess soil moisture and later-than-normal crop maturity is expected to continue supplying humidity to the atmosphere, allowing conditions favourable for severe storms to persist longer than they typically do.

In a typical year, Saskatchewan’s severe weather season begins to taper off in August as crops mature.

As cereal and oilseed crops reach maturity, they release less moisture into the atmosphere through evaporation and transpiration. That gradual reduction in humidity limits the amount of fuel available for severe thunderstorms.

This year, however, repeated rounds of rainfall delayed seeding across much of the province, particularly in eastern Saskatchewan, leaving crops behind their normal stage of development.

Because those crops are still actively growing, they continue releasing moisture into the atmosphere, helping maintain higher humidity levels later into the summer.

That added moisture, combined with periods of heat and favourable upper-level weather patterns, could keep Saskatchewan vulnerable to severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, torrential rain and tornadoes.

While individual storm outbreaks will still depend on daily weather systems, the delayed growing season may extend the period during which the atmosphere is capable of supporting severe weather.

August tornadoes are not unusual in Saskatchewan, but they generally become less frequent as crops mature and overnight temperatures begin to cool.

This year, that seasonal transition may be delayed.

The province has already recorded one of its busiest tornado seasons on record.

The Northern Tornadoes Project has confirmed 30 tornadoes in Saskatchewan so far this year, making 2026 the third-most active tornado season in provincial history.

The only years with more confirmed tornadoes are 2012, with 33, and the record-setting 1999 season, when 41 tornadoes were confirmed.

With several weeks of the traditional severe weather season still remaining, Saskatchewan is well within reach of surpassing the 2012 total and could challenge the all-time record if active weather continues through August.

Although no one can predict exactly how many tornadoes will occur, the combination of saturated soils, delayed crop maturity and continued moisture availability suggests Saskatchewan’s peak severe weather season may last longer than usual.

If that pattern continues, residents could face an elevated risk of severe thunderstorms later into the summer than they would in a typical growing season, making it important to continue monitoring forecasts and weather warnings throughout August.