Despite ongoing trade uncertainty between Canada, the U.S. and China, the Canadian Federation of Independent Business is forecasting that the economy is expected to grow 3.4 per cent in Q1 of 2026.

CFIB Director of Legislative Affairs Brianna Solberg says this is mainly due to a cooling inflation rate, increased consumer demand, and a bit more trade certainty than earlier on in 2025.

On the trade front, she says diversification away from the United States on the trade front would be good news to come out of the Premier and Prime Minister’s trip to China.

“On top of that, in Saskatchewan in particular, we know that the tariffs on canola have had a significant impact. We hear that consistently from our members in the agriculture sector that they would like our government to do something about that. I think they hope to see some positive news on that front.”

Despite the positive outlook for 2026, she adds that it isn’t all sunshine and rainbows.

“We still see more business exits than entries into the market. This has been going on for more than a year now. Ultimately, we can’t keep losing businesses without new ones entering. That paints quite a troubling picture, as you can imagine.”

There are a few other factors that are preventing more growth, as well, including skilled labour shortages, supply chain constrains, and slowing growth opportunities.”

She says this is a wakeup call for policy makers to create a stronger and more competitive economic environment.