The estimate was made with satellite imagery and did not have any data from producer surveys—those will be conducted after harvest with estimates being released on December 5th.

Canadian canola production is now forecast at 18.9 million tonnes, or 520,000 tonnes below last month’s estimate, which also used model-based forecasts. The five-year average for Western Canadian canola production is 18.34 million tonnes.

Saskatchewan is expected to produce 0.4 per cent less canola than last year at 10.3 million tonnes, with an average yield of 37.7 bushels an acre. Alberta canola production is pegged to fall 1.7 per cent to 5.5 million tonnes. The average yield in Alberta is estimated at 38.3 bushels an acre. Manitoba average yields are said to be 41 bushels an acre—putting production at 3.1 million tonnes, which would be about two per cent lower than last year.

Total wheat output is estimated at 34,290,000 tonnes—a slight decrease of 80-,000 tonnes from last month’s estimate. The average spring wheat yield in Saskatchewan is set 50.1 bushels an acre.

Durum production was revised only slightly from last month at just over 6-million tonnes, which would be nearly two million tonnes more than last year.

Lower area seeded to barley is expected to produce a crop that is 15 per cent smaller than last year at 7.6 million tonnes.

On the other hand, oats should break the three million tonne mark based on a 14.6 per cent rise in seeded area.

Pea production was revised slightly higher from August, while lentils were down slightly. However, production for both pulses is expected to be up considerably from 2023-24, with the pea crop up 21 per cent at 3.16 million tonnes and lentils up 44 per cent at 2.59 million tonnes.