On Friday, the Government of Saskatchewan provided three different scenarios related to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The scenarios provide a range of revenue impacts including a 2020-2021 decline between 1.3 billion to 3.3 billion dollars, depending on the duration of pandemic economic restrictions.

Finance Minister Donna Harpauer says it is incredibly difficult to forecast with any certainty but it was important to release the different scenarios to let Saskatchewan people know how much of an impact the pandemic is having on the province’s economy and revenues.  Each scenario includes assumptions on a number of factors including the duration of current restrictions, how soon resource prices recover and what consumer behavior may look like once restrictions are lifted.

Real GDP scenarios for 2020 are all negative and range from a decline of 4.1 per cent under the most optimistic scenario to a decline of 14.9 per cent in the most pessimistic scenario.  At this time, the government is managing spending within the amounts allocated in the budget estimates released on March 18th.

Harpauer pointed to strong management of the province’s finances as providing a solid fiscal foundation from which to manage the pressure from the current pandemic crisis and ultimate recovery.  The government says, Saskatchewan was on track for a surplus in 2019-20 and 2020-21 prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and oil price collapse.  Saskatchewan has maintained the second highest credit rating in the country, continues to have among the lowest net-debt as a percentage of GDP and continues to maintain a solid cash position.

Harpauer says this deficit is not a structural deficit, it is a pandemic deficit. Adding that Saskatchewan will mange through this, because the province has the strength, foundation and people to do it.