Canada should face reduced competition in the international wheat market—but there is one country that could still be a major influencer.

FarmLink Marketing Solutions senior analyst Neil Townsend says overseas competitors all have issues that will limit export potential.

Russia and Ukraine have sold a lot of wheat and should not have a ”volume” presence in late November and December. The European Union and Australia have both seen reduced wheat production following dry growing seasons.

“Most analysts have the Australian crop below 17 million metric tonnes, which will restrict their ability to export and that should open some doors for Canada.”

But it could also open doors for the United States, which has ample wheat stocks.

“If they decide it’s time to get into the market, that could undercut Canada potentially and limit some of the upside for our prices, and limit the market opportunities for our wheat,” says Townsend.

Townsend cites a recent example of the United States using aggressive pricing to make a wheat sale to Bangladesh.